Projects · Ongoing

Finance: market dashboard.

An attempt to quantify how some securities behave from cross-referenced information: when several stocks or rates move together, what trend emerges? The calculation is purely probabilistic and probably not very realistic. It is made just to see, and to learn, up to building a virtual stock basket.

A personal, educational exercise. Nothing on this page is investment advice. Read the full disclaimer

The dashboard

Stocks, indices and rates.

Four French stocks, three US stocks, four indices and four 10-year government rates (France, Germany, Italy, United States). Choose what to compare and the period: prices refresh every minute, and history goes back five years.

French stocks

TotalEnergiesFrench energy major: oil, gas, electricity and renewables. Listed in Paris, member of the CAC 40.
Air LiquideWorld leader in industrial and medical gases (oxygen, nitrogen, hydrogen). Listed in Paris, member of the CAC 40.
Crédit AgricoleCrédit Agricole S.A., the listed bank of the mutual Crédit Agricole group. Listed in Paris, member of the CAC 40.
StellantisCarmaker born in 2021 from the merger of PSA and Fiat Chrysler (Peugeot, Citroën, Fiat, Jeep…). Price of the Paris listing.

US stocks

XPengChinese maker of electric cars and driver-assistance systems. Listed on the NYSE in New York, in dollars, and in Hong Kong.
NikeAmerican sportswear giant. Listed on the NYSE in New York, in dollars, and a member of the Dow Jones.
Coca-ColaAmerican beverage group. Listed on the NYSE in New York, in dollars, a member of the Dow Jones and known for its steady dividend.

Indices

CAC 40The index of the 40 largest companies on the Paris stock exchange, weighted by free float. The benchmark of the French market.
NasdaqThe Nasdaq Composite: every share listed on the Nasdaq market, more than 3,000, with a strong technology bias (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia…).
Russell 2000The 2,000 smallest companies of the Russell 3000, which gathers the 3,000 largest companies listed in the United States. The benchmark for US small caps.
VIXThe “fear index”: the 30-day expected volatility of the S&P 500, derived from option prices. It rises when markets get nervous.

Rates

OAT 10-yearThe rate at which the French State borrows over 10 years (OAT bonds). A benchmark for loans and for the cost of public debt.
Bund 10-yearThe rate at which the German State borrows over 10 years. The euro-area benchmark: other European rates are measured by their spread over the Bund.
BTP 10-yearThe rate at which the Italian State borrows over 10 years (Buoni del Tesoro Poliennali). Its spread over the Bund measures the perceived risk on Italy.
Treasury 10-yearThe rate at which the US government borrows over 10 years (Treasury). The global benchmark for long-term rates.

Click a series to add it to the chart or remove it. The “?” explains what it is.

 

    Loading quotes… Stocks and indices rebased to 100 at the start of the period, 10-year rates in % on the right axis. Delayed data, for information only. Sources: Yahoo Finance, CNBC.

    Trends and spreads

    10-year rates, and what separates them.

    The cost of money for four States, its one-month trend, and the spreads between France, Germany and Italy: when a spread widens,markets see the more expensive country as riskier. To understand what these rates change for France, see Explain French public debt.

    Rates

    OAT 10-year

    France

    —

     

    1 month
    –
    1 year
    –

    Bund 10-year

    Germany

    —

     

    1 month
    –
    1 year
    –

    BTP 10-year

    Italy

    —

     

    1 month
    –
    1 year
    –

    Treasury 10-year

    United States

    —

     

    1 month
    –
    1 year
    –

    Spreads

    OAT – Bund

    —

     

    1 month
    –
    1 year
    –

    What France pays on top of Germany.

    BTP – Bund

    —

     

    1 month
    –
    1 year
    –

    What Italy pays on top of Germany.

    BTP – OAT

    —

     

    1 month
    –
    1 year
    –

    The gap between Italy and France. Negative: Italy borrows more cheaply.

    Trend over one month. For a rate: under 5 basis points (bp), stable; 5 to 20 bp, rising or falling; beyond that, sharp. For a spread, the same steps at 3 and 10 bp. 100 bp = 1 percentage point. One-year sparklines, at the last close.

    Just to see

    The conjunction calculator.

    A first try, on the fifteen series of the dashboard: choose two moves on the same day and see what a series did the next day, compared with usual.

    Whenandon the same day, the next dayrises…
    –Loading history…
    After the conjunction
    All days

    Computed in your browser, on the daily history of the last five years.

    The thinking

    What we are looking for.

    • Links

      Which securities move together, which move apart, and does it last over time?

    • Lags

      Does a security react with a delay to another one, to the OAT rate or to the oil price?

    • Conjunctions

      When several signals happen at the same time, what most often happens next?

    • Probabilities

      Turn all this into observed frequencies, without claiming to predict: a calculation to see, not an oracle.

    • The stock basket

      Put together a few securities chosen from these trends, then follow the basket over time, like a virtual portfolio.

    The stock basket

    Building a basket, without real money.

    Next step: move from observations to a basket of a few securities, and follow it over time as a virtual portfolio. The aim is to measure whether the trends spotted hold up, not to make money.

    • Virtual

      No order placed, no money committed: the basket only exists on paper.

    • Rules written in advance

      Selection criteria, the weight of each security (equal weights, for example) and the review frequency are set before starting.

    • Compared with a benchmark

      The basket is judged against an index such as the CAC 40, over the same period, to see whether it beats the plain market.

    • Everything is dated

      Every composition and every change stays visible, including when the basket gets it wrong.

    The approach

    From raw price to probability.

    1. 01

      Collect the history

      Prices of stocks, rates, commodities and indices, day by day, over several years.

    2. 02

      Measure the links

      Rolling correlations and lags between series, to see what moves together and what leads what.

    3. 03

      Define conjunctions

      Combine simple events (a rise, a fall, a threshold crossed) and count what follows.

    4. 04

      Compute probabilities

      Compare the frequency observed after the conjunction with the usual frequency, alongside the number of cases.

    5. 05

      Test against chance

      Check on another period that a gap is not mere chance before giving it any credit.

    6. 06

      Build a basket

      Pick a few securities according to rules written in advance, then follow this virtual basket against a benchmark index.

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer and terms of use.

    Nature of the content
    The information, charts, calculations and baskets on this page are published for information and educational purposes only, as part of a personal project. They are neither investment advice, nor a personal recommendation, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell a financial instrument.
    About the author
    The author is not a financial investment adviser and carries out no regulated advisory or third-party management activity. The securities mentioned are given as illustrations; mentioning them is not a recommendation.
    Risks
    Investing in financial markets carries risks, including partial or total loss of the capital invested. Past performance is no guide to future performance. The probabilities computed here describe the past, on a limited sample, and may never happen again.
    Data
    Prices come from third-party sources (Yahoo Finance, CNBC). They are delayed and provided with no guarantee of accuracy, completeness or availability.
    Liability
    The author cannot be held liable for decisions taken on the basis of this content, nor for any direct or indirect losses that may result. Any investment decision is the sole responsibility of the person who takes it.
    Before investing
    Assess your situation, your investment horizon and your risk tolerance, and consult a professional licensed by the competent authority (the CSSF in Luxembourg, the AMF in France).
    Use
    Viewing this page means accepting these terms. Content may be changed or removed at any time, without notice.